Current Position: 25.0N 86.1W
Geographic Reference: 280 miles west of Key West, FL
Movement: Northwestward near 6 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing slightly
Chance of Development Within the Next 48 Hours: 40 percent
Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 60 percent
Changes from the Previous Forecast
There are no major changes.
Disturbance 11 is the dominant and distinct low in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and it will soon aborb the smaller and weaker Disturbance 15. After the two combine, there is a very high level of uncertainty with regards to the track. Our thinking remains that the system will be captured by a trough to the north. This will result in an east-northeastward motion toward the Florida Peninsula or Panhandle. However, an alternative scenario is for the system to miss the trough. This would result in a more westward track toward the western Gulf. This is considered unlikely at this time.
The low level structure of the disturbance is becoming better defined and the upper winds are likely to gradually become more favorable for development. For these reasons, along with most computer models indicating development, the chance of development is 40 percent within the next 48 hours and 60 percent beyond the next 48 hours.
Expected Impacts to Land
Cayman Islands: Conditions should improve as the disturbance moves away.
South and Central Florida Peninsula: Squalls will continue through the next few days, with periodic heavy rain possible.
Central to Southeastern Louisiana Coastal Areas: The first squalls could reach the area on Friday morning. Heavy rain is possible from Friday evening through Sunday morning. Increasing easterly winds offshore could result in tides 1-2 feet above normal by Friday morning and up to 2-4 feet above normal over the weekend.
Mississippi Coast Through the Central Florida Panhandle: Squalls could reach the area by Friday evening, lasting through the weekend. Tides may increase to 1-2 feet above normal on Saturday due to increasing easterly winds offshore. Tides could increase more on Sunday, depending upon whether or not a tropical storm develops in the north-central to northeastern Gulf.
Expected Impacts to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Squalls associated with the northern periphery of the disturbance could begin to impact the deepwater areas off southeastern Louisiana by Thursday night. This means that the last guaranteed full day of good flying weather for helicopter operations will likely be Thursday. Heavier squalls could begin impacting the area by Friday morning. These squalls could last through Monday.
The next advisory will be issued by 11 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Dante Diaz